MAGAZINE №6 (71) December 2015
AUTHOR BOCHKAREV A.A., BOCHKAREV P.A.
CATEGORY Reliability and stability of the supply chain Sourcing Optimization and economic-mathematical modeling
ABSTRACT
Recently several scientific works have been published, which suggested to apply methods of reliability theory in order to calculate the delivery reliability in supplies. This supply system is seen as a recovery system; as for the reliability of supply it is characterized by the availability function K a, and general indicator of supply reliability is the probability of failure-free supply P(t) at a given time τ for the entire study period (t, t+τ), which is calculated on the assumption that the failure rate λ(t) obeys an exponential distribution. The results of our studies show the failure rate λ(t) is generally a subject to a normal distribution, instead of an exponential distribution. And existing methods of calculating the delivery reliability in supplies do not take into account the non-stationary and discontinuity of supply disruptions. This paper proposes an improved method of calculating the delivery reliability in supplies, which allows non-stationarity as well as discontinuity of supply disruptions, therefore, more accurate data describing the reliability of suppliers is obtained.
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